2025-26 NFL Team Futures Odds

The NFL season lasts 22 weeks on average, including the postseason. However, debates about how good teams are and whether they are contenders last all 52 weeks of the year. Of all the leagues, the NFL is the most bet on, and that includes futures markets such as Super Bowl, conference, and division winners. 

Football bettors spend all off-season tinkering with models, weighing teams' additions and subtractions, and diving into advanced metrics to start building their futures portfolios. Of course, the fun doesn’t stop there either, as markets move each week, opening and closing the door on potential profitability. Given how much attention the NFL receives from sportsbooks, though, it’s difficult to beat these shops in regard to value, which is why it is vital to be predictive and attack markets before adjustments can be made. 

The 2025-26 season alone provided plenty more examples of preseason and early-season longshots paying out. Strong and consistent research can lead to finding teams like the Seahawks to win the division when they are (+800) before the season. Down below, bettors will find up-to-date odds for each NFL futures market, helping them identify the best price or just monitor the market from the preseason to the day it’s taken off the board.

Quarterback Injury Insurance and Futures Risk

Quarterback injuries represent the single most significant risk factor in NFL futures betting, and they are absolutely factored in when sportsbooks release preseason odds. When a starting quarterback goes down, even if it’s for an undisclosed injury during training camp, futures odds are usually removed from the board or quickly change. The price change across markets depends on several factors, including injury severity, the quality of the backup QB, and the adaptability of the offensive system. Teams with viable backup plans and stronger defenses tend to experience a less drastic odds shift than teams like the Chiefs during the 2025-26 season.

Backup quarterback quality matters, but context goes a long way, too. A high-end second string within a familiar system can keep a team afloat, especially if the roster around him can stay healthy. The play-calling ability of the coaching staff also comes into play here, as coaches like Kyle Shanahan have proven they can thrive with a backup, while other coaches are unable to adapt the playbook. 

Key factors bettors should evaluate include:

• Experience and play style similarity between the starter and backup

• Offensive scheme adaptibility and coordinator track record with backups

• Depth and talent at offensive line, skill positions, and defense to help keep the team moving forward 

• If the backup has any experience as a starter, or has strictly been a backup since entering the league

Understanding quarterback injury plans before a possible injury could help bettors stay one step ahead of futures movement, rather than reacting after the market adjusts. Futures can’t always be about what happens if everything goes right for a given team; they need to factor in multiple scenarios.

Turnover Regression and Its Impact on Season Outcomes

Turnover margin is one of the more misleading indicators when making preseason NFL futures. While takeaways and defensive touchdowns can swing individual games, they are notoriously hard for teams to sustain over the long term. Sportsbooks are, of course, aware of this volatility, but public bettors may still overvalue teams that rode extreme turnover advantages to inflated win totals in the season prior.

When a team posts an unusually high turnover margin, futures prices during that season may shorten based on results. However, the following season, even modest regression toward league average can erase several one-possession wins, therefore reducing that team’s playoff probability. This is especially prevalent in tight divisions, where one or two games determine whether a team goes to the playoffs or to the Bahamas.

Key turnover-related signals bettors should watch include:

• Interception totals are driven by poor opposing quarterback play or multiple games against backups.

• Fumble recoveries are inconsistent and very hard to sustain year over year. 

• Turnover margins that outpaced underlying metrics like pressure rate, CPOE allowed, or EPA.

By placing greater emphasis on turnover regression, bettors can better evaluate division and playoff futures.